The Canadian Real Estate Association has cut its outlook: the market is recovering more slowly than most people expected.
Its current forecast puts national sales at roughly 463,000 units for 2026, down 1.4% from 2025.
That is not a continued slide, though. It reads as a cautious recovery — June sales were up 0.9% year over year and 0.5% month over month. The first half was soft overall, and buyers who have been waiting have not returned in any real number.
Several things are weighing on it: oil prices, rates, and slower population growth, all of which feed into buyer confidence and housing demand.
The market is also splitting by region. There is still a negotiating window in BC and Ontario, while any clearer price appreciation may not arrive until 2027.
If you are buying: don’t read the national number. What matters is your city, your budget, and how far along your financing actually is.
If you are selling: pricing and the buyer’s borrowing capacity are what move a property — listing alone no longer produces a quick sale.
The real point is that the market is waiting for confidence to return, and confidence depends on rates, the wider economy and what buyers make of both.
Our suggestion: start with a lending assessment and a cash-flow projection. The earlier you plan, the more options stay open.
Figures cited are as at the date of this video. The video is in Chinese.
Originally published on Guaranti’s YouTube channel.